In keeping with the theme of delivering bitesized content, here is my first video!
Yes, I have entered the brave new world of video editing. I do have to say, I have a newfound appreciation for all the work that goes on behind putting a video together.
In this video, I discuss three numbers you should be watching when assessing the global economy and financial markets for this year. They are:
1) China’s economic growth target
2) The oil price
3) The US unemployment rate
All the above will help us understand the key themes of whether the world economy will enter recession this year, and of course, inflation.
As stated previously, a turnaround in China’s economy is a bit of a wildcard for the global economic growth this year. Whether it will be enough to counteract weak growth among advanced economies remains to be seen, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that China’s economy will rebound strongly this year. A clearer indication will be when China sets its growth target – which has rumoured to be at least 5%, and not due to be officially announced until March.
Meanwhile, inflation has been front and centre of policymakers’ minds in recent times. It may be a relief for investors to see inflation down from its peaks, but the US Federal Reserve should also be watching the unemployment rate closely. Even if headline rates of inflation will come down, interest rates are likely to still rise, or stay restrictive if the unemployment rate doesn’t end up rising.